Update, October 2026: this analysis was written in December 2025. For our current Victorian research, see our Melbourne and Victorian locations and Autumn 2026 property market insights.

Regional Victoria Property: Sales Momentum Signals the Next Capital Growth Cycle

After several subdued years, regional Victoria is re-emerging as a serious contender for capital growth–focused property investors. Sales activity, finance data, and population trends are now aligning in a way not seen since the post-COVID boom of 2021.

Our latest analysis of transaction data for the upcoming Price Predictor Index shows a decisive lift in buyer activity across regional Victorian markets, particularly those within commuting distance of Melbourne. Importantly for investors, this resurgence is being driven by rising sales volumes rather than speculative price spikes, a hallmark of early-to-mid growth cycle conditions.

Investor Finance Is Flowing Back Into Victoria

Recent Australian Bureau of Statistics housing finance data confirms what is now evident on the ground. Victoria has become the fastest-growing state for investor lending in Australia.

Over the 12 months to September:

• National investor lending rose by approximately 9%
• Investor loan volumes are now more than 30% above September 2023 levels
• Victoria led the nation with annual investor loan growth of around 13%

This is a notable shift after a prolonged period where investors avoided the state due to taxation and regulatory concerns. The data suggests investors are once again prioritising fundamentals, particularly affordability, yield resilience, and capital growth potential.

Sales Volumes Point to Sustained Growth, Not a Short-Term Bounce

Hotspotting-style analysis of sales activity shows regional Victoria has been strengthening gradually for more than 12 months. In the spring edition of the Price Predictor Index, we noted that sales volumes had reached their highest level since the December quarter of 2021.

The latest quarter has pushed that trend further:

• Regional Victorian sales volumes are now approximately 29% higher than a year ago
• Around 66% of regional markets now carry positive classifications, up from 58% three months earlier
• Only 22% of markets now show negative momentum, a sharp improvement on recent years

This breadth of improvement matters. Capital growth is most sustainable when it spreads across multiple locations rather than being concentrated in a handful of hotspots.

Why Picking a “Top Five” Is Now Difficult

One of the clearest signs of a healthy market is that it becomes harder to narrow the field. Right now, multiple regional Victorian LGAs are showing strong and consistent sales activity, making investor selection a matter of strategy rather than scarcity.

Standout regions include:

Latrobe Valley

Eight of the ten markets analysed now hold positive ratings. Sales activity in the latest quarter was approximately 47% higher than a year earlier. Traralgon, Morwell, and Moe are all benefiting from sub-$400,000 median house prices, ongoing infrastructure investment, and strong rental demand.

Baw Baw Shire

Sales volumes are up more than 40% over the past 12 months. Warragul and Drouin continue to attract both owner-occupiers and investors, supported by population growth and improved transport connectivity to Melbourne.

Greater Bendigo

Of the 22 markets analysed, 73% now carry positive classifications. Overall sales volumes are up around 36% year-on-year, reflecting Bendigo’s role as a major regional employment and lifestyle hub.

Greater Geelong

Geelong continues to draw strong demand from both home buyers and investors. House sales in the latest quarter were approximately 29% higher than a year ago and 46% higher than 18 months ago. Unit market activity has also lifted sharply, with sales volumes up nearly 40% year-on-year.

Ballarat

Ballarat’s sales volumes are around 40% higher than a year ago. Quarterly sales have risen steadily from the mid-500s through most of 2024 to over 800 in the most recent quarter, signalling renewed depth of demand.

Mitchell Shire and Goulburn Valley

Mitchell Shire has recorded steady, consistent increases in sales across Seymour and Broadford. In Shepparton, sales dipped slightly in the most recent quarter but remain close to 50% higher than a year ago, with Mooroopna showing particularly strong activity.

Consistency Is the Quiet Standout Across Rural Victoria

Beyond the headline regions, one of the most compelling themes is the number of smaller regional towns demonstrating highly consistent sales volumes. This is often overlooked by investors, yet consistency is a key ingredient for long-term capital growth.

Locations such as Horsham, Gisborne, Wangaratta, Sale, Hamilton, Swan Hill, Torquay, Warrnambool, Kyneton, Yarrawonga, and Maryborough continue to record steady turnover, suggesting resilient local economies and reliable demand.

The Big Picture for Investors

The current environment represents the strongest regional Victorian market conditions since 2021. Media commentary nationally continues to highlight:

• Ongoing affordability pressures in capital cities
• Migration from Melbourne to lifestyle and commuter regions
• Infrastructure-led growth in key regional centres
• Renewed investor appetite for markets offering value and yield

Despite higher property taxes and a more complex regulatory environment, investors are clearly concluding that the growth fundamentals outweigh the friction.

For investors focused on capital growth, regional Victoria now offers a rare combination of relative affordability, rising transaction volumes, improving sentiment, and broad-based momentum. History suggests that when sales activity leads, prices tend to follow.

For those prepared to select well and hold through the cycle, regional Victoria is once again firmly back on the national investment radar.

Related reading: Ballarat · Geelong · Bendigo · House and land packages Australia wide